Brexit: 'no deal would cut Scottish GDP growth by 9%'

Dianna Christensen
February 9, 2018

Speaker John Bercow first ordered the papers to be released at the end of January, enabling MPs to be able to access them in a confidential reading room in Parliament.Since which time details have been leaked to the press.

"What matters is the positions we take in the negotiations as we sit down and negotiate the best deal".

The latest leak of the UK Government's Brexit papers reveals Whitehall's economic assessment of various scenarios broken down by region.

The analysis, which was produced by Treasury officials last month, predicts that Brexit with a free trade deal would reduce Northern Ireland's economic growth by 8 per cent.

Secret papers which assess the economic impact of leaving the European Union found the Brexit heartlands of the north-east and West Midlands would be the worst affected, it can be revealed. As the poorest English region, the North East was inevitably going to be more vulnerable to the economic upheaval of leaving the EU.

Following agreement on the Common Travel Area (CTA) in December 2017, Department officials were optimistic that we had avoided the worst-case scenario of disruption to the Irish health services post-Brexit, so long as the commitments are followed through.

Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Willie Rennie said: "The government's own research is now showing that Brexit will be an economic disaster for every part of the UK".

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"The Tories must now explain why they accused the Scottish Government of scaremongering when their own government was covering up similar findings". The Tories are putting everything on the line because they do not care about the lives and livelihoods of the people of the North East. They are still keeping no deal on the table despite how crippling it would be to the regional economy.

The UK government's breakdown predicts that the north east of England would be worst hit by Brexit, with its GDP cut by 3% by single market membership, 11% by a free trade deal and 16% under a "no deal" scenario.

At the Tory party's annual Black and White Ball in London, Mrs May told the assembled donors, celebrities and politicians: "Ever since the British people delivered their vote in the referendum, I have had no doubts about what our new relationship with the European Union must mean for the United Kingdom".

The SNP's Stephen Gethins asked her: "The Scottish Government analysis has shown that a "no deal" scenario could cost Scotland up to 8.5% of GDP".

"Government analysis suggests that Northern Ireland could be cost up to 12 per cent of its GDP".

Northern Ireland Secretary Karen Bradley told the House of Commons Wednesday: "It is important to state that the United Kingdom government wants to achieve a good deal for the United Kingdom that protects the economic integrity of the U.K". Does she believe any analysis she has seen?

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